Jon Michaeli’s Blog


What is Twitter’s saturation point?

Want a perfect example of hockey stick growth? Just take a look at Twitter in 2009. Unique visitors have climbed from ~2mm at the end of 2008 to ~10mm by the end of March, 2009. That’s a monthly compounded growth rate of 70%!

Twitter’s base platform is rudimentary at best, which is why 3rd parties have built ad hoc services, such as TweetDeck, TweetVolume and TweetPhoto (the most recent addition) on top of Twitter to help users manage and enrich their posts, organize their streams categorically, integrate with other social networks, and monitor chatter for CRM purposes.

But, as a tool to reach new customer prospects – especially for a bootstrap that cannot afford to hire a team of social media specialists – I cannot help but feel Twitter will soon follow in Facebook’s steps as cluttered, overwhelming, and tough to navigate. Granted there are some key differences. Perhaps two of the most important in Twitter’s favor are 1) The hurdle for participation is extremely low, and 2) Twitter simulates a real-time one-to-many conversation. That said, Facebook has its own strengths (e.g. more of a community feel, more robust in functionality acting as a one-stop destination site). Anyway, try creating an application and/or fan page as a cash-constrained startup on Facebook these days and see how little traction you’ll get without assigning a leading agency and devoting 24/7 to the project.

We’ve seen this before in the digital era. Look no further than email, where it’s now virtually impossible to gain mindshare. Lists quickly get stale, staying whitelisted gets ever more challenging, and standard email open and click thru rates have plummeted to the low single digits. Implement best practices such as list cleansing, personalization, database triggers and contextual targeting, and you’ll do somewhat better, but again there’s an opportunity cost for your effort.

No I’m not debating that new Web 2.0 techniques are quickly going the way of their digital predecessors like email and display advertising. But the fact that SPAM and “posers” cannot be eliminated beyond a certain point, the sheer volume of traffic will create tons of competition and “noise.” This is the very reason why I am not a big fan of social media outreach as a standalone strategy, especially for brands at the outset of generating awareness.

I’m far from the first to advocate for integrated marketing, but aside from its value as a multi-touchpoint, consumer life-cycle grounded strategy, I believe it is an effective solution to this problem. There’s no debate that understanding your customers and prospects, finding a way to effectively communicate your value proposition, and stating your goals are a prerequisite. But I believe the next best step is working within an initial budget and ROI goal to develop a “shtick” or hook that is compelling, differentiated, perhaps edgy, but definitely buzzworthy. This offers the best chance of plugging in to the influencer crowd of the social web, and it is in their hands to determine whether your brand is destined for true virality. But, for creative concepts to truly lead to successful execution, I believe the message (focused, simple and consistent) should be distributed across mediums and communication channels, leveraging other digital tactics, grassroots initiatives, and even more traditional methods, including microsites, street/stunt/event marketing, media outreach, and mobile ad campaigns.

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One Response to 'What is Twitter’s saturation point?'

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  1. Ben Waxman said,

    Well said and digested. Glad I stumbled upon you.


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